Why didn’t people recognize earlier that the war in Ukraine would be a prolonged conflict?

 I think that in the early days of the war, many of us overestimated the significance of the initial successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU). 

Events like the Battle for Kyiv and the liberation of Kherson and parts of Kharkiv made many believe a Ukrainian victory was just around the corner. 

Meanwhile, the public and many politicians in the West not only underestimated but also mocked the Russian Armed Forces.

A destroyed building in the Donetsk region. The closer you get to the fighting, the more you understand just how challenging this war truly is. (Photo by the author of this post.)

Self-proclaimed "experts" told us daily that all the Ukrainians needed was a few more Western weapons to push the Russians out. They claimed the Russians had little chance.

This mindset persists: every Ukrainian setback is downplayed, while small territorial gains by the AFU are celebrated as major victories.

The same people criticized anyone reporting from the frontlines who cautioned against dismissing the Russians too soon and suggested we brace for a long, tough fight.

On top of that, the Ukrainian government controlled much of the narrative, skillfully presenting the AFU as the superior force—though that’s only partially accurate.

All these overly optimistic messages took hold because a quick Ukrainian victory would have been favorable for everyone in the West, especially our politicians, leading to a lot of wishful thinking.

The lesson? Don’t trust military amateurs when it comes to predicting battle outcomes.